Skip to main content

Table 2 Model performance statistics

From: Conventional risk prediction models fail to accurately predict mortality risk among patients with coronavirus disease 2019 in intensive care units: a difficult time to assess clinical severity and quality of care

  APACHE II SAPS II APACHE III-j JROD2019
AUROC (95% CI) 0.704 (0.634–0.774) 0.696 (0.627–0.765) 0.707 (0.642–0.772) 0.718 (0.654–0.782)
Brier score (95% CI) 0.144 (0.125–0.163) 0.156 (0.125–0.163) 0.155 (0.137–0.174) 0.121 (0.104–0.139)
Hosmer–Lemeshow test, p value < 0.001 < 0.001 < 0.001 < 0.001
Calibration plot
 Slope 0.782 0.472 0.548 0.587
 Intercept −1.124 −1.257 −1.231 −0.452
Standardized mortality ratio (95% CI) 0.521 (0.406–0.660) 0.564 (0.438–0.713) 0.546 (0.424–0.690) 1.151 (0.895–1.456)
  1. APACHE Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation, AUROC area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, CI confidence interval, JROD Japan Risk of Death, SAPS Simplified Acute Physiology Score