Conventional risk prediction models fail to accurately predict mortality risk among patients with coronavirus disease 2019 in intensive care units: a difficult time to assess clinical severity and quality of care

Table 2 Model performance statistics

	APACHE II	SAPS II	APACHE III-j	JROD₂₀₁₉
AUROC (95% CI)	0.704 (0.634–0.774)	0.696 (0.627–0.765)	0.707 (0.642–0.772)	0.718 (0.654–0.782)
Brier score (95% CI)	0.144 (0.125–0.163)	0.156 (0.125–0.163)	0.155 (0.137–0.174)	0.121 (0.104–0.139)
Hosmer–Lemeshow test, p value	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001
Calibration plot
Slope	0.782	0.472	0.548	0.587
Intercept	−1.124	−1.257	−1.231	−0.452
Standardized mortality ratio (95% CI)	0.521 (0.406–0.660)	0.564 (0.438–0.713)	0.546 (0.424–0.690)	1.151 (0.895–1.456)

APACHE Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation, AUROC area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, CI confidence interval, JROD Japan Risk of Death, SAPS Simplified Acute Physiology Score

ISSN: 2052-0492