Fig. 2

Calibration plot for each cohort. In the development cohort, the ideal dashed line reflects perfect calibration between the predicted and observed mortality. The apparent performance, indicated by the dotted line, reflects the calibrated performance of the model. The solid line reflects the bias-corrected performance based on bootstrapping. The validation cohort also has ideal dashed lines. The solid lines reflect the fitted logistic calibration curve. The dotted lines reflect a smooth nonparametric fit using a locally weighted scatter plot for smoothing