Predicting mortality in the intensive care unit: a comparison of the University Health Consortium expected probability of mortality and the Mortality Prediction Model III

Table 2 Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and net reclassification index for University Health Consortium (UHC) Model plus individual Mortality Prediction Model III (MPM-III) variables

MPM-III variables	AUC for UHC model + additional variable	p value for difference between AUCs	NRI	NRI p value
Coma	0.91	0.09	0.09	0.04
Heart rate >150	0.90	0.36	0.03	0.14
Systolic blood pressure <90	0.90	0.34	0.00	N/A
Chronic kidney disease	0.90	0.49	0.00	N/A
Cirrhosis	0.90	0.90	0.02	0.29
Malignant neoplasm	0.90	0.74	0.00	N/A
Acute renal failure	0.90	0.48	0.01	0.36
Arrhythmia	0.90	0.32	0.00	0.87
Cerebrovascular accident	0.90	0.92	0.02	0.29
Gastrointestinal bleed	0.90	0.44	0.00	0.56
Intracranial mass effect	0.90	0.72	0.00	0.16
CPR prior to admission	0.90	0.14	0.12	0.01
Mechanical ventilation within 1 h of admission	0.91	0.03	0.04	0.50
Medical or unscheduled surgical admission	0.90	0.22	−0.01	0.78
Limitation on emergency therapy or intervention	0.92	0.03	0.10	0.05
All MPM-III variables	0.92	0.01	N/A	N/A

Net reclassification index represents the proportion of patients who were appropriately recategorized into low (<25 %), moderate (25–50 %), and high (>75 %) risk of mortality with the addition of each individual MPM-III variable
AUC area under curve, CPR cardiopulmonary resuscitation, MPM Mortality Probability Model III, NRI net reclassification index, UHC University Health Consortium

ISSN: 2052-0492